Azari Foundation
A programme should be able to explain why its activities are expected to produce a particular outcome.
Theory of change gives Azari Foundation a disciplined way to connect a problem, proposed intervention, assumptions, outputs, outcomes and longer-term effects. It is a reasoning tool, not a decorative diagram.
Start with the outcome
The first question is what meaningful change is sought for people, institutions or the environment.
Only then should the programme work backwards to the capabilities, behaviours, services or conditions that need to change.
Make assumptions visible
Programmes often rely on assumptions about participation, quality, incentives, local capacity or external conditions.
Writing those assumptions down makes them testable and helps the team understand why an intervention may fail even when activities were delivered.
Separate outputs from outcomes
A workshop delivered, a grant awarded or a facility equipped is an output. The outcome is the change that follows, such as improved capability, service use or institutional performance.
Good monitoring needs both, but should not confuse them.
Identify external factors
Economic conditions, public policy, school calendars, health systems, climate events or local leadership can affect results.
A theory of change should acknowledge those factors rather than attribute every positive or negative movement to the programme.
Use it as a living model
As evidence accumulates, the theory should be updated.
A model that cannot change when its assumptions are disproved is not useful for learning.